NFL Offense Rankings: All 32 Teams Ranked & Why It Matters for Bettors

Offense is everything in modern football.

It's a score-first NFL, and modern offenses are so good that even the best defenses struggle to keep up.

Every team ranked in the top 10 of Football Outsiders' Offensive DVOA metric last season finished in the top 13 overall. Teams in the top-10 Defensive rankings lagged behind, finishing at Nos. 15, 16, 19, 22 and 25, with all five missing the playoffs entirely.

An offense is more than one man, but an elite quarterback can carry an entire unit. We already ranked the league's Opening Day QBs, and you'll notice plenty of overlap here since quarterback performance makes up over 40% of overall offensive rating, per Football Outsiders.

It's not just the quarterbacks, though.

Offensive lines may be the most important position group, even more than skill players like running backs and receivers, and an elite offensive coordinator and coaching scheme can elevate a unit lacking talent to something far greater than the sum of its parts.

Today, we rank every NFL offense from 1 to 32, and that should give us an idea of how this season plays out — and how to bet.

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Tier 1 — It's the Quarterback, Stupid

Last year's preseason ranking: 1

On one hand, the Chiefs are replacing both starting tackles, their longtime offensive coordinator and their top WR. On the other hand, they still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Kansas City has finished top two in Offensive DVOA in all five Mahomes seasons and made the AFC Championship Game in each, too. They may not finish No. 1, but they're the safest team on the board to finish near the top.

Last year's preseason ranking: 9

The Bills lost Brian Daboll, played the second half of the season with Josh Allen injured, never found a reliable second receiver and still finished a comfortable second in Offensive DVOA.

This unit is mostly running it back, but should get a healthier year from Allen. Damien Harris should add a power component to the run game as well.

If rookie TE Dalton Kincaid hits, he'll only add another dimension. But really, this is a bet on Allen playing Superman, just like always.

Last year's preseason ranking: 5

The Bengals offense is a lot like Joe Burrow. It doesn't necessarily overwhelm with explosion, but it's calculated and efficient and meticulously gets the job done.

Cincinnati started last season with a run-heavy approach on early downs again, but adjusted a month in and never looked back.

The Bengals don't use much motion or do anything fancy — they're just better than you. They'll run if needed, pass short or let Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins beat you downfield.

Cincinnati knows teams can't cover the whole field and that its offense can get there, and that's pretty much a wrap. The Bengals don't match the flash or ceiling of the Chiefs and Bills, but the consistency and efficiency is top notch.

Notice that the top-three offenses happen to have the top-three quarterbacks. Not a coincidence. Star QBs lead star offenses and star offenses make the playoffs and win there.

Tier 2 — It's the System, Stupid

Last year's preseason ranking: 10

For the three teams above, just having a superstar QB is enough to guarantee a top-end offense. For the teams in this tier, it's an elite offensive scheme that puts them on a path to greatness.

It might be both for the Eagles.

Philadelphia comes at each opponent with a new plan of attack. One week is deep balls to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the next RPOs and play-action, and sometimes they just run it down your throat 40 times.

The Eagles have the best offensive line in the league, and they're loaded with talent up and down the roster. It was the best non-QB offense in football — and now it has an MVP-caliber signal-caller in Jalen Hurts.

Last year was likely the peak, and we'll see how much of the offense was due to departed offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. Still, the dependable run game gives the Eagles an incredibly high floor.

Last year's preseason ranking: 16

The Dolphins offense might have the highest ceiling in the NFL.

Head coach Mike McDaniel unveiled an offense that broke defenses in the first half of last season, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle using their blazing speed to get the ball downfield quickly. Miami stretched the field in both directions and was faster than its opponents, who had no answer.

Then Tua Tagovailoa and LT Terron Armstead struggled through injuries. As a result, the offense sputtered down the stretch, but still found occasional explosive plays and ultimately finished seventh in DVOA.

That's a remarkable floor given how much went wrong, and the ceiling was unstoppable at times even as McDaniel was still figuring things out.

I don't trust Tagovailoa's health, but I'm all-in on McDaniel. If Tagovailoa does stay healthy most of the year, he could be an intriguing MVP long shot at +2200 (DraftKings).

Last year's preseason ranking: 4

The pieces are all there for the Chargers, so it's time to stop with the excuses.

New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is the key addition. His presence should open up an offense that attacks more downfield to take advantage of Justin Herbert's arm strength and decision making. The Chargers are the only team — other than the Chiefs and Eagles — to rank in my top 10 at QB, offensive line and offensive coordinator.

It's easy to be skeptical after so many years of letdowns. Last season was especially disappointing. But the offense was riddled with injuries.

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed 11 games. Stud OL Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley combined to play only one season's worth of games. Herbert played through broken ribs.

If the Chargers get better health this year — always a big if — their offense can be as good as any.

Tier 3 — The 2023 Wildcards

Last year's preseason ranking: 12

The Ravens offense hasn't finished top 10 in DVOA since they led the league in 2019, but this looks like a great chance to return.

Gone is longtime offensive coordinator Greg Roman and his run-heavy offense. That's been replaced by Todd Monken's pass-heavy spread attack. Baltimore also signed Odell Beckham Jr. and used its first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Zay Flowers to overhaul its receivers.

Now it's up to Lamar Jackson, who won MVP leading that 2019 offense. It could take some time, but if Monken can unlock Jackson's passing and release him more of a scrambler to add to his running value, Jackson could be in line for an MVP repeat.

He's +1600 at FanDuel.

Last year's preseason ranking: 28

You might be surprised to see the Falcons in the top 10, but you get used to seeing Arthur Smith near the top of offensive rankings.

Smith's offense finished top six in DVOA twice in Tennessee, and he pushed the Falcons from No. 28 to 13 last season with a run-first offense that both maximized a good offensive line and hid his quarterback.

Now that Atlanta has added stud rookie RB Bijan Robinson to TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London, the Falcons have a top-10-draft-pick freak at each skill position. This offense will pound the run and mix in efficient passing, utilizing Desmond Ridder's running ability and making things easy with relentless play-action.

Smith's scheme sets a high floor, and Robinson's all-world abilities as a runner and as a receiver could help this unconventional offense break out. He's the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +300 (FanDuel).

Last year's preseason ranking: 11

The Cowboys lost Kellen Moore and will now rely on Mike McCarthy to lead the offense. That feels tenuous, but McCarthy's pass-heavy tendencies could actually push this team to do what it does best.

Dak Prescott is one of the league's most accurate QBs and he has a second target again with the addition of Brandin Cooks. New OC Brian Schottenheimer does a great job of scheming ways to get the ball to receivers in space to maximize YAC — that looks like the perfect fit with Cooks and CeeDee Lamb.

In this case, the loss of Moore and RB Ezekiel Elliott, who was relied on too much, could weirdly end up being addition by subtraction.

Last year's preseason ranking: 17

This is The Wildcards tier because they have higher variance than most teams, and no one has more variance this season than the Browns and Deshaun Watson.

The offense around Watson is set. Cleveland has an elite rushing attack with a top offensive line and the best pure runner in the league in Nick Chubb. The Browns also added Elijah Moore on the cheap to complement Amari Cooper.

Watson was terrible in his return last season — to be expected for any number of reasons — but this offense ranked fourth in DVOA before Watson took over for the final six weeks.

If Watson can at least be as good as Jacoby Brissett was, this is a top-10 offense. If Watson returns to his 2020 form, the Browns offense could be as good as any.

Last year's preseason ranking: 13

For the 49ers, the surprise might be seeing them outside the top 10, but Kyle Shanahan's offense has surprisingly only finished top 10 in DVOA in five of his 10 seasons calling plays.

The run game is pretty much always there with Shanahan's scheme, but the success of his offense is predicated on the passing game — and that's why I'm concerned.

Maybe Brock Purdy really is the next big thing, but it's far too soon to tell, and he's unproven at best. This QB room is one of the worst I can recall for a surefire, top-five Super Bowl contender in the modern era.

Add in a faltering O-line that could become a nightmare if LT Trent Williams ever misses time, and San Francisco's offensive floor might be much lower than anyone wants to admit.

Pencil them in near the top at your own risk.

Tier 4 — Trust the High Floor

Last year's preseason ranking: 26

The Lions were a revelation under OC Ben Johnson last season, with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown breaking out and Jared Goff playing maybe his best season ever.

This year, Detroit has upgraded its RBs with the additions of David Montgomery and first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions also effectively add a second first-rounder in Jameson Williams since he barely played last season. Throw in a top-three line and we're cooking.

Still, we're cooking with Goff, and he really can't play any better than he did during the back half of last season, so that could leave more downside than upside.

Last year's preseason ranking: 23

Most pundits seem to be writing the Jaguars into the top 10 and right into the playoffs, but this offense — and team, really — is almost entirely Trevor Lawrence.

And maybe that's enough! If Lawrence is a top-five QB in waiting, maybe nothing else matters.

But with an offensive line this poor, especially to start the season while LT Cam Robinson is suspended, and skill players still lacking in punch even with Calvin Ridley ready to go, it's just a lot to ask of a 23-year-old QB.

Doug Pederson's offenses tend to be more above average than great, and that's where I see Jacksonville this season.

Last year's preseason ranking: 25

The Jets went out and got Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook, but didn't fix the offensive line. This will be some of the worst protection in Rodgers' career, and he's struggled later in his career when he can't get into a rhythm or rely on a run game.

Too many new Jets additions — Cook, Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard, OC Nathaniel Hackett — feel like Rodgers favors rather than steps forward.

Rodgers has never led an offense ranked outside the top 11 in DVOA in 11 healthy seasons, but this roster in a division loaded with elite defenses could really push him to the limit.

His pocket presence and creativity can help the O-line and elevate his skill players in theory, but it's fair to wonder if a guy who turns 40 in December can still hit that level.

Last year's preseason ranking: 29

The Seahawks offense barely missed a beat without Russell Wilson thanks to a huge breakout year from Geno Smith. However, the offense was consistently better against soft opponents — against better defenses, the offensive line and overall play ticked down.

First-round WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like the perfect complementary addition to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, which gives Smith one of the league's best trios, but he still struggles under pressure.

If the line can do its part, and create some room in the run game too, Smith should repeat his breakout performance.

Last year's preseason ranking: 27

It was a massive leap for the Giants from last in Offensive DVOA to top 10 — HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka get most of the credit.

New York got a breakout year from LT Andrew Thomas and rekindled its run game, thanks in large part to weaponizing Daniel Jones as a runner.

Daboll has proven his system can elevate the Giants to a stable floor, but the underlying numbers show an offense with training wheels, unwilling and unable to get the ball downfield or create explosive plays. A run-heavy scheme with a supbar offensive line can only get you so far.

Tier 5 — Stuck in the Middle

Last year's preseason ranking: 8

There's really no reason a Vikings offense with this much talent should be stuck around the middle.

Justin Jefferson is the league's best receiver, and he'll be buoyed by midseason addition T.J. Hockenson and first-round WR Jordan Addison, giving Kirk Cousins plenty of weapons.

But Minnesota's offense actually got worse after Hockenson's arrival, in part because the team's rushing attack completely cratered. The Vikings need to keep LT Christian Darrisaw healthy and find some semblance of a run game without Dalvin Cook.

Head coach Kevin O'Connell needs to show he can elevate an offense.

Last year's preseason ranking: 20

It feels like the Saints should bounce back to at least league average with the addition of Derek Carr.

Carr was terrible last season under Josh McDaniels, but he should be a much better fit in New Orleans with his accuracy and touch slotting in nicely to an offense once built for Drew Brees.

Sophomore WR Chris Olave looks ready to break out, and he'll be even better if Michael Thomas stays healthy. Jamaal Williams and a solid offensive line helps, too — not to mention the eventual return of Alvin Kamara from suspension.

New Orleans isn't sexy, but should get the job done.

I like Olave as a sleeper pick to lead the league in receiving yards at +2800 (FanDuel).

Last year's preseason ranking: 7

Expectations are much lower for the Broncos this time around. This year is all about whether Sean Payton can turn things around and find a redemption arc for Russell Wilson.

Denver invested heavily in its offensive line, so an improvement on that front could make everything easier, especially as Wilson ages.

It's possible Wilson is just completely cooked at this point, but remember that Payton got the Saints to the playoffs when Drew Brees could barely throw the ball past the line of scrimmage.

Payton and Wilson should at least get this unit to around average, but it's hard to get too excited.

Last year's preseason ranking: 19

The Patriots offense isn't particularly exciting either, but it should be much better now that it has a competent — and good (!) — offensive coordinator in Bill O'Brien.

New England almost always has terrific blocking and a top-10 run game under Bill Belichick, so count on him to find some answers for a line that struggled last season.

Expect O'Brien to stabilize things and get Mac Jones back on track after a poor season.

Tier 6 — Trending in the Wrong Direction

Last year's preseason ranking: 3

The Packers offense will obviously take a step back this season without Aaron Rodgers, but the question is how far.

Jordan Love has had a few years to learn, but there's no way to know if he's ready to step in and lead a high-level NFL offense. A good offensive line and strong run game should help him and provide a stable floor for the offense.

That won't matter if Love isn't good. If he looks ready to go and gets some help from a shockingly young receiving corps, this is an offense that could surprise. The Packers are +350 to win the NFC North in their first season post-Rodgers.

Last year's preseason ranking: 30

The Steelers turned to Kenny Pickett early in his rookie season and should feel pretty good about an offense that finished around league average both running and passing.

Pittsburgh isn't getting much help from OC Matt Canada, but a decent line and a pair of quality receivers in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens should give Pickett plenty of help.

Last year's preseason ranking: 6

It's pretty odd seeing the Rams this low, but Sean McVay's guys ran out of magic last year. Even with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp healthy, the team ranked 27th in DVOA over the first half of the season.

What's fascinating is that the offense actually rated much better down the stretch without Stafford and Kupp, and that's because Cam Akers finally got going.

McVay's offense typically thrives when the run game sets the tone and opens everything up. That could be a problem with this terrible offensive line, and if Kupp's injury lingers or Stafford's returns, the bottom could drop out again.

Last year's preseason ranking: 14

The Raiders had a subpar offense last season — now they replace Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo.

A young offensive line outperformed expectations last season and helped Josh Jacobs to a career year, but if the run game takes even a half-step back, this could go sideways.

We've now seen seven seasons with Josh McDaniels at the helm of an offense without Tom Brady. Only two of those offenses finished top 10 in DVOA — barely — with three of them around average and two outright bad.

That's just not good enough for a guy who's considered an offensive wizard.

Tier 7 — Depends on the Quarterback

Last year's preseason ranking: 18

If you're looking for an offense that could come out of left field and surprise, the Colts are an intriguing sleeper.

It's all about Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson. Steichen was the architect of last year's breakout Eagles offense, and it's not hard to close your eyes and imagine a similar mode of attack with Richardson playing the role of Jalen Hurts.

That means a super run-heavy offense with Richardson's outrageous athleticism a focus of the rushing attack. It could also mean plenty of RPOs and play-action to make things easier for the rookie QB. But the Colts O-line has faltered in recent years, and now RB Jonathan Taylor has asked out.

I like what the Colts are cooking, but if Taylor leaves and the line doesn't bounce back, it could be a nightmare rookie season for Richardson. This offense could take a year or two to find itself.

Last year's preseason ranking: 24

The Panthers are another team with a young offense that could break out if everything clicks right.

Carolina built a superstar coaching staff and turns things over to new OC Thomas Brown, one of the hot names in coaching circles in recent years. He and HC Frank Reich will bring a lot to this offense, but there are plenty of questions to answer.

The young offensive line was wildly inconsistent last season, and No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young could need some time to adjust to the size and speed of the NFL.

Expect the Panthers to take some lumps early, but they could find themselves over the back half of the season.

Last year's preseason ranking: 32

The Texans have ranked last in the league running the football the last two years, so that should be the first order of business for new OC Bobby Slowik. He's a longtime Kyle Shanahan disciple and inherits an improving, young line, so this offense could come together in a hurry if Slowik finds a stable run game — like the 49ers have had over the years.

From there, it's up to rookie QB C.J. Stroud and better-than-you-think weapons, with new TE Dalton Schultz operating as a nice security blanket.

Houston's offense probably won't be good, but the days of floundering at the bottom of my rankings should be a thing of the past.

Last year's preseason ranking: 31

Everyone keeps waiting on that Justin Fields breakout season, but I'm just not buying the Bears.

The metrics for Fields as a passer are ghastly. And the offensive line is pretty good blocking for the run, but struggles to give Fields time to throw.

How much can new D.J. Moore add? I worry it may not be enough if Fields has no time and continues to make himself a runner first.

Chicago is mostly betting on internal development from this unit, but I'm Bearish on this offense.

Tier 8 — Start Scouting 2024 Draft Picks

Last year's preseason ranking: 21

Maybe the Titans shouldn't rank this low with Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill, but if either of those guys get hurt, they are in big trouble.

Tennessee has the worst offensive line in the league with a bullet, and bad blocking tends to bring everything else down.

DeAndre Hopkins isn't what he once was, and Tannehill has dropped off since Arthur Smith left for Atlanta. If this team has to turn to Malik Willis — or rookie Will Levis — at some point, it could get ugly.

Last year's preseason ranking: 22

The Commanders are another team that could be buried by poor offensive line play. Washington has ranked bottom 10 in Passing DVOA for five straight years, and it'd be a surprise to see that change with a bad line in front of sophomore fifth-round QB Sam Howell, who has just one start to his name.

Howell has a good trio of receivers, but there are already rumblings of new OC Eric Bieniemy not getting on well with this team. If he can't elevate the unit, there's just not much talent there.

Last year's preseason ranking: 2

It's quite a tumble for the Buccaneers, who started last season with the second-best offense in my preseason rankings.

Tampa's offense faltered mightily in Tom Brady's final season. The Bucs moved on from OC Byron Leftwich, and the offensive line has taken a major step back while the run game has completely cratered.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still around, but the rest of this unit is disastrous.

Tier 9 — Reported Missing on NFL RedZone

Last year's preseason ranking: 15

You know it's bad when you get your own tier at the bottom.

The Cardinals offensive line is terrible. The receiving weapons are nothing special. New OC Drew Petzing is a complete unknown.

Until Kyler Murray finds his way back on to the field — if he gets there at all this season — the Cardinals will roll out the worst QB in the league in Colt McCoy.

The Cardinals are the favorites to land the No. 1 pick in next year's draft for a reason.

4 Key Takeaways for Bettors

1. Great quarterbacks drive great offenses.

The top-three offenses perfectly mirror the top-three QBs. Every quarterback in my top five finishes top six on offense here. Eight of the top 10 offenses have a top-10 QB — all but Miami and Atlanta.

The lesson is pretty simple: Great quarterbacks lead to great offenses. Sometimes it really is that simple.

That also means the AFC could be an offensive bloodbath. Much like the QB rankings, six of the top seven offenses come from the AFC.

That makes it awfully tough for an average-at-best offense — like the Broncos, Patriots or Steelers — to make much of a push, and even the Jets or Jaguars could struggle a bit if they finish outside the top 10.

2. The Ravens and 49ers look the most volatile and unpredictable.

For Baltimore, it's about whether Todd Monken can elevate the offense with his spread scheme and if Lamar Jackson can win games with his arm instead of his legs.

For San Francisco, the question is whether Brock Purdy is really healthy and ready for this job, or if a faltering offensive line can undercut a Kyle Shanahan quarterback.

The Ravens had the best offense in football four years ago. The 49ers had the best offense in the league with Purdy last fall. The sky is the limit for both if they click, but a bad version could have a floor outside the top half of the league.

These are teams to bet on outlier outcomes. If you believe in the upside, you might want a Super Bowl ticket with the 49ers at +1000 and Ravens at +2000.

If you're out, you might need to bet against them making the playoffs at all, with Baltimore at +138 and San Francisco a juicy +375.

3. If you're looking for a sleeper, the Falcons and Browns could be your ticket.

Teams with elite QBs already have it made, but for the many others that don't, some are finding stable, high-end offense by dominating in the run game and then using that to open up the pass.

That's what helped the Giants shock everyone last fall under Brian Daboll as New York made the playoffs and even won a game, and it's the right formula for Atlanta and Cleveland.

Both of these teams have outstanding offensive lines and dynamic run games built around two of the most talented runners in the league in Bijan Robinson and Nick Chubb. If the passing games come along, you're looking at a pair of top-10 offenses.

The Falcons are +210 to go worst-to-first in the NFC South, while the Browns are +400 to do the same in the AFC North.

4. After a down year around the league, this looks like a great offensive year — that could make life difficult for sleepers.

The young talent around the league is amazing, and the coaching staffs are doing a great job innovating and maximizing what they can get out of even minimalist rosters.

I count at least 14 offenses that seem like they should surely make any good top 10 list, and I could've happily squeezed 20 teams into a top 15. There are a lot of quality, competent offenses — that sets a pretty high bar.

That also means it feels extra difficult to break into the top 20, and that matters because the lowest-ranked offense to make the playoffs last season was Minnesota (20th in DVOA).

Be careful before you go all in on teams like the Packers, Steelers, Bears, Titans or Panthers as your big sleeper. If they can't at least contend for league-average offensively, they're probably not good enough.