Astros vs Orioles Odds & Prediction: Why to Bet Houston

Hunter Brown has filled in nicely to the rotation, helping ease the burden created from Cristian Javier's struggles and injuries to Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. Brown and the Houston Astros are set to face Dean Kremer and the Baltimore Orioles, one of the best teams in baseball. However, Brown’s expected numbers are much more encouraging than Kremer’s. In addition, Kremer allows some loud contact. Brown may do the same, but he strikes out far more hitters.

With the Astros hitting better off of right-handed pitching over the past month, they are the correct play in this duel.

Brown boasts a 3.86 second-half ERA over 23 1/3 innings pitched. On the season, he owns a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 7.8% walk rate. His Average Exit Velocity is 90.4 mph with a 43.8% Hard-Hit Rate. He also boasts a 3.92 xERA against a 4.07 ERA.

Houston has fared well against righties in the past month. The Astros own a 108 wRC+, a .748 OPS and an 11.2% walk rate. That should help against Kremer. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Álvarez are worth watching as they both have xwOBAs over .400 and high Average Exit Velocities off of righties.

The Houston bullpen has had some trouble, which is likely why this line is closer than it should be. The Astros only have one active reliever with an xFIP under 4.00 since July 10. That said, a back-end of Bryan Abreu, Kendall Graveman, Ryne Stanek and Ryan Pressly should get the job done.

Kremer has been pretty lucky this season with a 4.61 ERA against a 5.43 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90.4 mph with a 43.8% Hard-Hit Rate. However, he is only striking out 21.7% of batters and walking 7.3%. His Barrel Rate is up near 10%, which may not work against the boppers in Houston’s lineup.

Baltimore hasn't done so well against righties over the past month. The Orioles have four batters with a xwOBA over .330, though Anthony Santander is just under.

The O’s bullpen has been elite all year with a 3.60 xFIP, a 27.8% strikeout rate and a sub-6% walk rate. Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe and Félix Bautista have been the anchors, so if Houston can get to Kremer early, the Astros may get to face some weaker middle relief options.