Tipico: was on the fence at +125 which is available a few places, gotta take it at +165 though. Right on that Top 10 line in speed, 37.74% implied here is well below his Top 10 lap rate and finish rate.

Erik Jones has had a disappointing year. After finishing 18th in the standings last year he is sitting 28th going into Sunday's race. Last year he managed to record 13 Top 10 finishes along with a win at Darlington. This year he has just five Top 10 finishes and would be on pace for around just eight such finishes if he continues to record Top 10 finishes at the same rate through the playoffs. That said, it doesn't appear that the poor performance is Jones's fault. Legacy Motorsports is leaving Chevrolet to join Toyota in 2024 and it appears that Chevy has largely stopped supporting Legacy as a result. The lack of manufacturer support matters less here at Daytona though. As noted in the introduction, raw speed is less important than driver skill here. Jones has plenty of talent which means this bet has value. In the Gen 7 car Jones has managed to complete 51.57% of his laps inside the Top 10 at Daytona and Talladega. He has the third best average running position of all drivers in the six Gen 7 races at Daytona and Talladega. He also has three Top 10 finishes, including a sixth place finish at Talladega earlier this year. Looking at his entire career, Jones has finished inside the Top 10 at Daytona and Talladega in 10 of his 26 starts, 38.4% of the time. Even if we assume that Jones is only likely to continue finishing in the Top 10 38% of the time, that would mean his fair odds for this bet would be +163. At +195 we are getting plenty of cushion against his historical Top 10 rate.