Available at FanDuel. Verlander is still going very deep in games, which is beneficial for this number. But in 11 starts with fewer sliders, Verlander has gone over this number five times, meaning the under is hitting at a 55% clip. He did have one big strikeout game since joining the Astros, but he has six total strikeouts in his other two starts. Boston's active roster has just a 20.5% strikeout rate against righties, so getting +124 on the under here is tough to pass up. I have Verlander projected for 4.8 strikeouts tonight.

Available at FanDuel. I'm not super far off from market on this one, but I have the Red Sox's win odds at 46.8%, up from 43.9% implied. This is Tanner Houck's first start off the IL, which leaves open some uncertainty. But he pitched well in his three rehab starts, and at least the injury wasn't to his arm or lower body. Houck had poor results before his injury, potentially thanks to his inflated hard-hit rate allowed, but his expected ERA was still 3.92. He's facing Justin Verlander, who has had good results but is subject to variance via the number of balls in play he allows. I agree with the model here in that the Red Sox are undervalued.

Available at FanDuel. Giolito is facing a high-strikeout Reds team, but I think this number takes it too far. I have Giolito projected for 6.3 strikeouts, and players projected there tend to go under 6.5 more often than they go over. In nine starts since he started throwing his changeup more often again, Giolito has hit the over on this number three times, and he has failed to get to even six strikeouts in all the others. A lot of those starts did come on the road, and he does get a boost for the opponent, but this seems like too far of a leap if we're getting +120 on the under.

Available at FanDuel. You are paying a price to get a push on +3 with the -115, but I think that's still a worthwhile tradeoff over taking the moneyline at +128. The Steelers' offense seemed to make a scheme change during their Week 9 bye last year, and it led to a nice up-tick in their offensive efficiency. Specifically, they made gains on the ground and in their late-down success rate, though their early-down passing efficiency was a bit better, as well. They have a tough opponent, but we still haven't seen Brock Purdy in the preseason yet as he recovers from elbow surgery, so there is some uncertainty on the other side. Although my model projects the 49ers to have the league's best defense this year, the Steelers also rank inside the top five there after how they played once TJ Watt returned from injury. With the Steelers at home, I agree with the model that taking the three points is the right way to play this.

Available at FanDuel. The Seahawks deserve to be favored in this game -- but I think this takes it a bit too far. My model has the Rams as 2.71-point underdogs here, in large part due to expected progression out of the offense from last year's disappointment. The defense has had a bunch of changeover, but the Seahawks don't project to light the world on fire there, either. I adore Geno Smith, and I think this Seattle offense has talent across the board. It's just hard to pass up 5.5 points on a team that does still have quality coaches and a quarterback who can play very well when healthy.

I understand why the total here is low. It's an indoor game (though some wind does leak through) with two offenses that can put up points. But both of these defenses have the potential to be great this year, even with Jalen Ramsey out for the Dolphins. The pace in this game projects a smidge below average, especially given the Dolphins may want to be a bit cautious with Tua Tagovailoa coming off of so many injuries. The Chargers project to be up-tempo with Kellen Moore in town, but they already operated at a decently fast clip last year, so that's not a deviation. The easiest path to this bet failing is big plays popping up, and that's very possible. But given both defenses are constructed with the main intent of stopping said big plays, I do agree with my model that the under is the way to go.

Available at FanDuel. My model views the Bills as the better team -- but once you account for homefield, I have the Jets as slight favorites. Not only do the Jets add Aaron Rodgers, but they return the key contributors to a defense that ranked second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics last year despite poor turnover luck. The Jets' offensive line has been a big issue throughout training camp, but with Mekhi Becton pushing for a starting spot and Duane Brown potentially healthy by Week 1, it may wind up being an overblown narrative. My model still has the Bills third in its power rankings, so this is very much an endorsement of the Jets' outlook rather than indictment of the Bills'.