Mariners vs Royals Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, August 17
Pictured: Julio Rodriguez. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Mariners vs. Royals Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +114 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -135 |
The Kansas City Royals have hit right-handed pitching well this month, but on Thursday, they'll need to do so against one of the American League’s most solid pitchers: George Kirby.
Kirby excels in hit ability to throw strikes and Kansas City hasn't shown much patience at the plate. Kirby should have a good performance.
Additionally, Seattle can hit lefties. Angel Zerpa will start for the Royals on Thursday, though he only has four appearances this season, and the longest one was four innings. This could end up being a bullpen day for the Royals, and they've struggled immensely when tasked with closing down the latter innings of a game.
Since that is the case, taking Seattle’s team total over is the right call in this game.
Kirby owns a 3.11 ERA against a 3.65 xERA. He ranks in the 55th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 43rd percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. He also ranks in the middle of the pack in strikeout rate, but his Chase Rate ranks in the 82nd percentile, and his walk rate is only 2.5% over 144 2/3 innings.
Seattle has done well against lefties this month. The Mariners have a 124 wRC+ with a 10.5% walk rate and a .798 OPS. They have five active batters with an xwOBA over .320. If a righty enters the game, Seattle holds a 120 wRC+ and a .782 OPS against them. The Mariners should fare well regardless of who is pitching.
In relief, Seattle has done well this season. In August, they have a 3.36 xFIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate.
Over four August appearances, Zerpa has a 7.71 ERA over 9 1/3 innings. His Average Exit Velocity is 90.7 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 52.8%. Even if he fails to go deep into this game, the Royals have been absolutely abhorrent in relief. Seattle should crush whoever Kansas City sends out there.
The Royals have been hot lately and have a .888 OPS and a 140 wRC+ off of righties this month. They have six active bats with a xwOBA over .320, which is comparable to Seattle. However, that offense hasn't come against pitchers like Kirby. Kansas City has a sub-7% walk rate off of righties, so don't expect them reach base easily.
The Royals bullpen has a 5.47 xFIP with a 13.4% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate this month, so their options for a bullpen day are sparse. The Mariners should find offensive success throughout the game.
Mariners vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even though Kirby is expected to have a strong showing, the Seattle moneyline is too skewed. Kansas City's pitching staff has had a rough go lately, so bet against them. The Mariners should score early and often. Take Seattle's team total to 5.5 (-133).
Pick: Seattle Mariners Over 5 Runs (-120) | Play to 5.5 (-133)
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