Mets vs Cardinals Prediction: Today’s MLB Odds, Picks

Thursday's series opener will feature an interesting battle between two veteran starters. At age 41 Adam Wainwright has struggled to an 8.78 ERA across 66 and 2/3 innings. He will face off against Jose Quintana, who has been surprisingly dominant with a 3.03 ERA throughout his first five outings with the Mets.

Jose Quintana's 3.03 ERA comes as a much needed surprise for a Mets pitching staff which has been scuffling to get through ball games of late. He comes in following three strong outings versus the Braves, Orioles, and Royals. In each matchup he pitched six or more innings, and allowed a total of just six earned runs.

Whether or not such dominance will continue remains to be seen, but he will likely be given a long leash to work in this matchup.

Quintana's xERA comes in over a full run higher at 4.14. His xFIP of 5.03 suggests even more regression could be on the horizon. Giving up a total of zero home runs across five outings this season has been the greatest key to Quintana's success.

His stuff has not rated well for several years, and the story remains the same this season as he owns a Stuff+ mark of 82. Strong command (102 Location+) and quality sequencing remain strengths that have allowed Quintana's surprising career resurgence at age 34.

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The Cardinals lineup could be quite thinned out for this matchup. Willson Contreras, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbar, Brendan Donovan, and potentially still Nolan Gorman are listed on the IL with various ailments.

Nolan Gorman sounds close to returning and could potentially be back in the mix in this matchup. His addition would be huge considering the state of the rest of the lineup, and as he has slugged .518 with an .897 OPS versus left-handed pitching this season.

St. Louis has hit to a wRC+ of 118 over the last 30 days, with a BB/K ratio of 0.47. The Cardinals also strong splits to left-handed pitching in particular with a wRC+ of 110 this season.

For DFS and betting purposes, keeping an eye out for today's Cardinals lineup will potentially hold lots of value as it should be hitter friendly conditions for a team well suited to do damage versus Jose Quintana.

Paul Goldschmidt in particular should be well situated to continue hammering Quintana. He has gone 11-for-17 (.647) versus Quintana with three home runs. Since 2021 Goldschmidt's .432 OBP versus left-handed pitching is the best mark in baseball, and his .364 mark thus far in 2023 is a drastic drop off relative to a larger sample of work. Goldschmidt has also hit to considerably better splits at home over the last two seasons. He owns an OPS of .992 at Busch Stadium since the start of last season.

The fact that Quintana is fully built up and he'll potentially face Goldschmidt three times also works in favour of the Cardinals. Goldschmidt owns a .403 OBP when facing a pitcher for the third time in a game since 2022, which is the sixth best mark in baseball.

Jose Quintana's recent dominance does not seem overly likely to continue as teams make adjustments, and oddsmakers are not giving him much respect with an earned runs line of 3.5 and a game total of 10.5.

Goldschmidt has owned Quintana historically, and based on this season's splits, remains a matchup nightmare. Aside from the higher potential for walks with the Cardinals lineup currently thinned out, this spot is about as good as it gets for Goldschmidt to do damage.

He is priced at -120 to record over 1.5 total bases, and even at that low number is a play for me.