MLB Odds, Best Bets: 3 Thursday Picks for Phillies vs. Nationals, Orioles vs. Astros

It may be a light slate with just eight games on the Thursday, August 10 schedule, but there are still some intriguing MLB matchups to bet today. Several of baseball's best teams are in action and our MLB betting experts have scoured the odds and identified their best bets.

Our MLB betting experts have found value in a pair of moneylines and a total. They're targeting Pirates vs. Braves, Astros vs. Orioles and Tigers vs. Phillies.

Continue reading as the MLB best bets for Thursday, August 10 are below.

Thursday's Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By D.J. James

Bryce Elder has benefited from good fortune all season, and even though he is facing the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday afternoon, he should come back to earth a bit. Meanwhile, Bailey Falter will start for Pittsburgh.

On the season, Elder holds a 3.43 ERA against a 4.38 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 89.7 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 40.3%. He's started to regress since the All-Star break with a 5.85 ERA and just 12 strikeouts over 20 innings.

Falter isn't the best starter, but he isn't much worse than Elder. Falter holds a 4.87 ERA against a 4.66 xERA this season, but boasts an exceptional 4.7% walk rate. Also, both his Average Exit Velocity (88.8 mph) and Hard-Hit Rate (37.3%) are lower than Elder's.

The Pirates have a 99 wRC+ with an 8.6% walk rate and a .743 OPS over the past month off of righties.

The Braves have a 96 wRC+ with a 10.1% walk rate and a .729 OPS off lefties in the same timeframe. That gives a slight offensive edge to Pittsburgh.

Atlanta has a small advantage with a 4.11 bullpen xFIP in August over the Pirates’ 4.72 xFIP, but Falter doesn't walk many batters and may pitch deep into the game.

By D.J. James

Hunter Brown and the Houston Astros are set to face Dean Kremer and the Baltimore Orioles.

The Astros are hitting better off of right-handed pitching over the past month and are the correct play in this duel.

Brown boasts a 3.86 second-half ERA over 23 1/3 innings pitched. On the season, he owns a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 7.8% walk rate. His Average Exit Velocity is 90.4 mph with a 43.8% Hard-Hit Rate. He also boasts a 3.92 xERA against a 4.07 ERA.

Houston has fared well against righties in the past month. The Astros own a 108 wRC+, a .748 OPS and an 11.2% walk rate. That should help against Kremer. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Álvarez are worth watching as they both have xwOBAs over .400 and high Average Exit Velocities off of righties.

Meanwhile, Kremer has been pretty lucky this season with a 4.61 ERA against a 5.43 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90.4 mph with a 43.8% Hard-Hit Rate. However, he is only striking out 21.7% of batters and walking 7.3%. His Barrel Rate is up near 10%, which may not work against the boppers in Houston’s lineup.

By Tanner McGrath

The Nationals should turn around and post some runs after getting no-hit by Michael Lorenzen.

I’m worried about Aaron Nola here as he’s been up and down all season. His fastball velocity crashed, then came back up. However, he’s now struggling to locate his secondary stuff.

Either way, he’s posted a 5.64 ERA over the past five starts. He’s due for some positive regression, but I’m not sold.

Meanwhile, the Phillies should have no problems posting crooked numbers against Patrick Corbin. There’s no need to explain Corbin (he’s allowed 35 earned runs in his past 47 frames), but we can touch on the Phillies, who boast a 112 wRC+ against southpaws over the past month.

The wind is expect to blow out toward right field at Citizens Bank on Thursday, which should boost the offense. And while the Phillies' defense projects to be better with Bryce Harper playing first base, these are still two bottom-10 defenses by Defensive Runs Saved.