MLB Best Bets Today | Picks & Odds for Marlins vs Reds, Twins vs Tigers (Monday, August 7)
Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images. Pictured: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
A new week of Major League Baseball is upon us, and we have 12 games on this Monday, with 11 taking place under the lights after Dodgers vs. Padres gets us going this afternoon.
Our analysts have eyes on two games in particular: Marlins vs. Reds and Twins vs. Tigers. They have expert picks on the moneylines in both games, including two on the same side of one game.
Here are our best bets for the MLB slate on Monday, August 7th.
Monday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Marlins vs. Reds
Monday, August 7 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Marlins ML (-143)  |
Both of these teams enter Monday in the midst of deep slides and desperate to stop the bleeding.
Since returning from the break, the Reds have gone 9-14 and have slipped to third place in the NL Central. Cincinnati enters Monday’s game having lost six straight contests and was just swept by the Nationals at home.
Miami has gone just 10-20 since the start of July and was just swept this weekend by the Rangers.
Twenty-year-old Eury Perez opened the year as the Marlins' No. 1 prospect and has burst onto the scene with immediate success. After 11 starts, Perez holds a 2.36 ERA and has looked brilliant.
He throws a fastball that averages 97.6 mph and has a devastating slider as well. He also throws the occasional curveball (13.7%) and changeup (11%). He has thrown his changeup 97 times this year and has not allowed a hit off it.
Another rookie will oppose Perez in Brandon Williamson. However, he has not had the same immediate success as his counterpart. Williamson has a 4.85 ERA with a concerning 5.72 xERA.
The issue with Williamson has been the same at every level of his career: command. He has issued 29 free passes in 14 games and has a 10.1% walk rate compared to just a 19.1% strikeout rate. When he does find the zone, opponents have a 43.3% hard-hit rate and a .364 xwOBA.
The Marlins and Reds have really struggled over the last few weeks. They rank 23rd and 24th, respectively in wOBA since the All-Star break. However, the Marlins have been much better against left-handed pitchers this season, ranking third in the entire league with a .358 wOBA and 121 wRC+.
The Reds will be in their worse split. Against right-handed pitching, they have just a .321 wOBA and 94 wRC+, and their wRC+ against right-handers has dropped to 78 over the last month.
Even after the starters leave, the Marlins’ advantage only increases. Cincinnati ranks 28th in the league in bullpen xFIP and 27th in K-BB%. Miami’s bullpen sits fifth in reliever xFIP and seventh in K-BB%.
Both of these teams come limping into Monday’s game, but everything points to Miami being able to stop the slide with its star rookie on the mound.
Pick: Marlins ML (-143)
Brandon Williamson has been really bad for the Reds this season. Williamson has a 5.75 xERA and a 5.14 xFIP, so it's no surprise that his Statcast metrics are frightening. He’s below the 10th percentile among qualified starting pitchers for xwOBA allowed and xSLG allowed.
The problem for Williamson this season is he has two main pitches that he goes to, a fastball and cutter. Neither has been effective, as they're both allowing an xwOBA over .375. The Stuff+ rating on his fastball, which he throws 36% of the time, is just 66, but his cutter does have a rating of 106.
The Marlins have been crushing left-handed pitching this season. Miami has a .349 wOBA and 121 wRC+ against them, which is the third-best mark in baseball. One of the reasons they are so good against lefties is they have the ability to get eight right-handed bats in their lineup and their only lefty, Luis Arraez, has a .350 wOBA against lefties this season.
Eury Perez has been recalled from the minors and while he had a lot of strikeouts, he didn’t do great in his last two starts, giving up a combined seven runs. However, his first 11 starts in the big leagues went great. His xERA was at 3.52, he had a K/9 rate up at 10.29, but most importantly his Stuff+ was 110.
Perez has an incredibly dominant fastball that averages 97.6 mph and has a Stuff+ rating of 127. He has two incredible offspeed pitches in a slider and curveball that are both allowing an xwOBA under .230 and producing a whiff rate over 40%.
The Marlins also have significant advantages in the bullpen, having a better Pitching+, xFIP, and K-BB% than the Reds.
I have the Marlins projected at -153, so I love the value on them.
Pick: Marlins ML (-143)
Twins vs. Tigers
Monday, August 7 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Twins ML (-162) |
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Pablo Lopez takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight and should be a good candidate to back in this matchup. Through 22 starts this season, Lopez is 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
While those are not the most dominant surface-level stats, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
This positive regression has started to come to fruition recently, with Lopez posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his past three starts.
Meanwhile, left-hander Joey Wentz takes the mound for the Detroit Tigers. It has been a disastrous sophomore campaign for Wentz, who is 2-9 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 13th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Not only will the Twins boast the pitching advantage, but they also feature the better lineup. This season, they rank higher than Detroit in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Pick: Twins ML (-162)
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