MLB PrizePicks Today, Featuring Shohei Ohtani & Marcus Semien (Friday, July 28)
Pictured: Shohei Ohtani. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
We have a stacked 15-game MLB slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Friday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Taylor Ward Fantasy Score More Than 6.5
The AL East's Toronto Blue Jays host the AL West's Los Angeles Angels in the first matchup of this three-game series.
We are catching some solid numbers on a few Los Angeles hitters because right-hander Kevin Gausman is slated to take the mound for Toronto. Gausman has put together an excellent campaign with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. His underlying metrics don't quite stack up to those stellar numbers, but they are still solid.
So, why back Taylor Ward in this game?
He enters this contest in great form and has exceeded this number in six of his past seven games. Over that stretch, Ward boasts a ridiculous .348 BA, a .913 SLG and a 1.320 OPS with four homers.
We'll continue to ride the hot hand until Ward cools down.
Shohei Ohtani Fantasy Score More Than 8
Superstar Shohei Ohtani is the other Angels hitter worth backing today. Any excuse to back the league's best player is good to me and Ohtani has been on fire lately.
Ohtani has cleared this figure in each of his past three games and is averaging 20.3 fantasy points per game over that stretch. The clear frontrunner to win the AL MVP, Ohtani boasts a .302 BA, a .683 SLG and a 1.081 OPS with a league-leading 38 homers.
His underlying metrics are ridiculous. Ohtani ranks in the 99th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, xwOBA, xSLG and Barrel%. He's a threat to homer in every game and I wouldn't be shocked if he does so in this matchup.
Nathaniel Lowe Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
The first installment of this three-game interleague series pits the NL West's San Diego Padres against the AL West's Texas Rangers.
Right-hander Joe Musgrove takes the mound for San Diego and should be a good candidate to back. Through 16 starts, he is 9-3 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely as Musgrove ranks in the 77th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Nathaniel Lowe is the first Texas hitter to fade in this contest. In three career plate appearances against Musgrove, Lowe is 0-for-3 with a strikeout.
Lowe's underlying metrics suggest he's due for regression and that could certainly hit on the road against Musgrove.
Marcus Semien Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
Marcus Semien is the other Texas hitter to fade in this contest. Semien has had a good year, but this will be a tough matchup.
Through nine career plate appearances against Musgrove, Semien possesses a .143 BA, a .286 SLG and a .291 wOBA. Over that same sample, the underlying metrics don't show much promise with a .142 xBA, a .241 xSLG and a .280 xwOBA.
When facing right-handed pitching, Semien's splits drop by roughly 4% this season.
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