Twins vs Phillies Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Friday, August 11
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Castellanos #8 of the Philadelphia Phillies
Twins vs. Phillies Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 9.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -146 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-162 | 9.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +122 |
The Minnesota Twins take on the surging Phillies on Friday night in Philadelphia. The Phillies have won eight of their last 11 to reposition themselves in the top spot in the National League wild-card race.
The Twins, meanwhile, lost three straight to the lowly Detroit Tigers, but they still maintain a 3.5-game lead in the bumbling American League Central.
It's a matchup of two playoff teams in name, but the matchup is not as close as that would suggest.
The Twins' record sits at a very pedestrian 60-57, but even that number flatters the club, as they have faced the fourth-easiest schedule in baseball this season. A good deal of their success has come against their poor division, with a 22-18 record facing AL Central teams and a sub-.500 record against the rest of baseball.
Their starter on Friday may well be a ticking time bomb, as well.
Dallas Keuchel was a favorite fade among MLB bettors in 2022, when he accumulated a 9.20 ERA over 60 2/3 innings on three different teams. Now he's on yet another team, and he may well be ready to give bettors some more freebies.
His first start got bettors a F5 victory, and he actually pitched decently on the surface, going five innings and allowing just one run. However, there was plenty of luck in that. He sprinkled eight hits and two walks over those five innings for a 90% left-on-base rate.
He failed to get a single strikeout and had only a 5.4% swinging strike rate.
Part of his success came from limiting hard contact — his 81.7 mph exit velocity allowed was a great way to get "lucky," but it's worth noting that his xBA was still .344, per Baseball Savant.
Using those same metrics, his xERA of 5.52 reveals plenty of potential for runs allowed for Keuchel in the right matchup.
The Phillies have been improving as the season goes along, sporting a 119 wRC+ over the past two weeks and 103 for the last month, compared to 100 for the season as a whole.
They are also in their slightly better split, with a 102 wRC+ against lefties, compared to 99 against righties. Alec Bohm, in particular, has been a beast against southpaws this season, sporting a 152 wRC+ fortified by a .264 ISO. Given the friendly home run conditions on Friday (wind blowing out; +21% home run factor per BallparkPal; seventh-best stadium for HR), Bohm is a great look to ladder on Friday.
When it comes to the team perspective, it's worth nothing that the Phillies are the inverse of the Twins from a schedule perspective. They own a 15-17 record against a tough NL East, but they are 49-35 (95-win pace) against the rest of the league. They are 21-14 since July 1, and we noted above their strength in the last two weeks.
Taking the hill for the Phillies is Christopher Sanchez, who has quietly put up a very solid season. Sanchez owns a 3.44 ERA, with a 4.35 FIP, 3.46 xFIP and 3.97 xERA.
What's most interesting about him is that he has seemingly simply stopped walking batters. For his career (both minor and major leagues), he has walked close to three batters per nine, but through 52 1/3 IP this season, he has a BB/9 rate of just 1.55.
Potentially because of this new approach, he has struggled with the long ball at times this year, having given up as many homers as walks!
The good news for Sanchez and the Phillies is that the Twins have struggled with lefties all season. They own a wRC+ of 87 against left-handed pitching this season, which ranks 27th in baseball. That pales in comparison to their 108 wRC+ against righties.
If there is one Twins player to take advantage of the homer-prone Sanchez (and conditions) on Friday, it might be a name you wouldn't think of: Michael A. Taylor. He's the Twins' best power hitter against lefties, and you should be able to get a decent price on him to homer, despite the matchup (lines not out for this market as of writing).
Twins vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Bring it all together and there are several good looks for bettors in this game.
My favorite is the Phillies first five inning spread -0.5 (-125). This targets the biggest factor in this game (Dallas Keuchel) the most efficiently. I also like the Phillies in every other angle of this, as I am taking them on the first five moneyline (-165, would take to -185); full game moneyline (-150, would take to -175); and full game spread (-1.5 +125, would take to +105).
I also lean to the over, but I prefer some alt totals thanks to the home run tendencies of Sanchez along with the friendly winds. Bettors can get over 9.5 -115 at FanDuel, so keep an eye out there for alt totals when they land.
Speaking of those friendly homer conditions, I will likely be betting Alec Bohm and Michael A. Taylor to leave the yard on Friday, along with Bohm over 1.5 total bases and over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI. As always, keep tabs in the Action app (@TurveyBets) for bets that aren't available as of writing.
Pick: Phillies First Five Innings Run Line -0.5
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